Apple’s probably sold upwards of half a million iPhones in less than a week, selling out in most Apple stores and AT&T outlets in America within 4 days. An ensemble of eBay entrepreneurs bought and then on-sold about 4000 iPhones within the same time frame. There can be no doubt that this product qualifies as a “fast moving consumer good”.

Given its initial success, we can expect the iPhone to sell somewhere around 8 million units before the end of the year if, and only if, the iPhone is able to gain traction outside North America. If it does manage to sell at such a rate, it will be a tribute to the power of marketing more than the excellence of the product. The hype has been extraordinary, setting new records for consumer electronics and ensuring that the advent of the iPhone is a landmark event in the mobile phone industry.

Steve Jobs has played the media like the conductor of a great orchestra and has been rewarded with the appropriate symphony. It really doesn’t matter whether you think that the iPhone is as world changing as sliced bread or as irrelevant as toothpaste for poodles, unless you’re a hermit, you can’t have failed to hear about it.I’ve played with one. I visited an Apple-yes-we-ran-out-of-iPhones-yesterday-store on Saturday. It had 10 thoroughly secured display iPhones for people to try out (plus an attendant security guard). Here’s what I can tell you:

  • It is surely a great toy. The touch interface (it really is good) will pretty much ensure that it sells in large numbers to gadget freaks, despite other drawbacks. The on-screen keyboard is OK but not brilliant. This is no device to write your first novel on.
  • It exhibits the usual brilliant Apple design and is destined to become a fashion statement for a while. It is “Nike cool” and will sell in large numbers to fashion victims.
  • It’s a good telephone. Better than most mobiles and vastly better than some.
  • The web surfing, Google Maps and You Tube capabilities are unique. Couple this with its wifi capabilities and iPod functionality and you have the youth market sewn up. It will sell in large numbers to middle-class US kids. It will be the must-have Xmas present this year.
  • The email capability sucks. It doesn’t sync with your PC. Blackberry addicts will not be switching to iPhones in large numbers until Apple fixes this.
  • The battery is going to be an issue. The estimated battery life is 300-400 days of constant use. Apple wants to charge you $79, plus $6.95 shipping to change it. Name me another mobile phone where, if you want to change the battery, you have to pay and send it away and live without a mobile phone for a while. This is such a dumb idea you’d think it came from Microsoft. Apple will be forced to fix this somehow.

Americans tend to forget that they are 2 years behind Europe and 3 years behind parts of the Far East when it comes to mobile phone use. The typical American mobile user hasn’t seen the high-end phones that are common elsewhere and is far more impressed with the iPhone than non-American users are going to be. When you read the lists of “what’s missing from the iPhone” in Internet reviews, they are all US-centric. It is not clear how well the iPhone will be received outside North America. Success is not a given.

Some will buy it for the interface, many people will ignore it and some will simply wait for iPhone 2.0.

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