Google launched it’s “phone” yesterday, but despite months of Internet buzz, it wasn’t the earthquake that some had predicted and expected. Actually, it wasn’t even a phone. Google introduced a new component of it’s strategy “to rule the world without being evil” - an open software platform for mobiles, called Android. It includes a mobile Linux-based OS and it’s backed by the Open Handset Alliance, a team of thirty three technology and wireless companies (including Intel, Broadcom, eBay, HTC, Motorola, Qualcomm, Samsung, Texas Instruments, and T-Mobile).

No earthquake. Never mind, the earthquake is coming. Google is going to destroy the mobile market as we know it. Here are the reasons why:

  1. For the first time, Google actually has an OS - open it might be, Google’s it is - around which it can assemble a developer community. OK, it already has one, but now it has a bigger one.
  2. Google dominates search. It has the premium service and it already dominates mobile search. But search is not yet a commonly used capability on mobile. It soon will be and then it’s “game over”, as far as mobile search is concerned.
  3. Google has the best Internet advertising engine. It’s an awesome asset. It will be used to put adverts on Android-enabled phones. Because of this, Google can monetize the mobile phone in a way that no other company can. And this means that it can offer services for free that no other company can.
  4. Google has Google maps. It shakes hands with the advertising engine in an awesome manner in respect of mobile advertising. This equates to “ad revenue squared” - and this time it’s personal.
  5. Google now has a wealth of server-based applications. It seems to have been collecting them almost as if they were stamps. “Ooh look, now I seem to have a full office suite.” These are as much mobile apps as they are Internet apps. Google only has to fit them into a cell phone form factor.
  6. Google has been gradually accumulating telecomms assets. When it bought Grand Central (take a look), it became obvious that Google was serious about telecomms.
  7. The handset manufacturers will co-operate with Google - why wouldn’t they? Google was sensible enough not to produce its own phone, just as Microsoft was sensible enough not to produce its own PC. It’s a parallel.
  8. Google knows that the mobile phone is getting dragged into many of the social networking plays (like Twitter and Facebook). It made its initial play for this market last week with its open interface for building social network apps. It will soon release Maka-Maka , which reportedly has the goal of bringing its diverse set of services together in a coherent way. (Something needs to!)
  9. Google is bidding for bandwidth in the US. It will get a piece - there can be little doubt of that. This will give it a basis for its own end-to-end service - should it want to provide one. The very thought of this has the US carriers running scared.
  10. The existing mobile carriers run a lock-in based business model. The effectiveness of the lock-in is gradually being undermined by WiFi and WiMax and ultimately it is doomed, by the advent of mesh networks. (And they will come). Ultimately, expensive monthly rentals, high call charges and vendor dependency will be a thing of the past. The world will belong to the company that can monetize mobile phone activity. That would be Google.

So will the carriers play ball? Well T-Mobile appears to be on board already. The carriers cannot like it - it’s as disruptive as their worst nightmare. But they cannot stop Google, so they may as well play nice and accommodate the “new kid on the block”.

Better to have Google inside the tent pissing out, than outside the tent pissing in.

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