The question; “What is Apple’s share of the PC market and how fast is it growing?” is simple enough, but the answer is complex. It is obvious to anyone who reads the news that Apple is growing strongly in the PC market and has become a force to be reckoned with, but how much of a force? Let’s examine Apple’s market share from as many dimensions as possible and maybe we’ll get a clear picture. We’ll begin with the global perspective.
The Global Figure
Total worldwide sales of PCs (according to both Gartner and IDC) rose to about 270 million in 2007. Apple had a little over 3.2% of that. That’s not much is it? If you were Microsoft, would you feel threatened by a competitor getting less than 4% of a market where you get well over 90%?
Apple’s Share of the Global PC Market = 3.2%…….(I)
You can see it that way if you want to, however…..
Eliminating The Business PC
Let’s split the market up between home PCs and corporate PCs. IDC and Gartner treat these two distinct markets as one, but they really are two distinct markets. Apple is, in Steve Jobs’ words, a consumer electronics company. It only targets a small part of the corporate PC market; high-end PCs and workstations. That market amounts to only about 1 percent of the whole market and HP and Dell pretty much dominate it. However, some businesses do buy and use Macs instead of PCs. It is difficult to sort out how big that number is.
The best handle I’ve got on this is the buying intention figures published by ChangeWave. ChangeWave carries out regular monthly surveys to determine US buying intentions for both laptops and desktops, and it provides figures both for the home market and business market. So in the period from May 2006 to November 2007, Apple buying intentions amongst consumers rose from about 12% to 29%. Impressive! Amongst business users the figures rose from 2% to 6% (desktops) and 2% to 7% (laptops). So the ChangeWave Charts suggest that business buying intentions are between one fifth and one sixth of consumer buying intentions.
So it’s reasonable to extrapolate that the same level of converting from intention to purchase will apply to both (but it is not reasonable to expect every “intention” to result in a purchase; that doesn’t happen). Incidentally, the figures suggest that the Home PC market drives trends in the business market, because consumers are businessmen too - I guess. Apple gets dragged into the business market by success in the home market.
Using these figures, it’s fair to assume that about 16% of Mac sales go to businesses, and as businesses account for roughly 33% of the total PC market at the moment, we need to adjust Apple’s market figures if we want to consider just the Home PC market. Working through the percentages we can conclude that Apple’s Home PC market share is about 25% greater than it is of the total market.
Apple’s Share of the Global Home PC Market = 3.2 x .84 x 1.5 = 4%…..(II)
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Very interesting take on this. I have wondered as well about regional USA market shares such as the New England and Los Angelos areas where film and graphic design may be more prevalent as well as high end colleges teaching these subjects?
“Right now it’s obvious that Apple is trampling all over Microsoft and it’s the PC manufacturers that are taking the hit.”
I like it! Tramp on Apple!!!
I have no solid data on regional figures, but its clear that Apple puts many of its stores in University towns and it has always taken care to serve the film industry just so that Apples keep appearing in movies.
Thanks for the feedback.
Robin
Excellent analysis. I think you’re correct that Apple’s market share will accelerate. People are just beginning to grok Mac.
“Apple actually has a 100% market share (of the Mac market) and the Home Mac market is outgrowing the Home Windows PC market by a factor of about 3 or so, indicating that consumers have concluded that it is a far superior product. ”
I just wanted to address this point. Is it really a fair comparison to try and compare a market in a growth stage with a market that’s in a mature stage?
To say consumers have deemed the mac to be the “far superior product” based on the growth rate is sensationalism at its finest.
Those PC users who do not switch because they believe the PC to provide superior utility do not affect the growth rate because they are already included in that market share. You can’t deny the growth, but you can’t claim the Mac “far superior” based on that and actually believe that is what consumers believe. Some yes, a majority, not a chance.
Other factors not considered is the growing number of PC users who do not purchase a PC from a store and build their own machines. I will likely never buy another “brand name” PC again, the last time i did was in 2002.
Later figures suggest that Mac market is outgrowing the PC market by a much higher factor (10 to 15). More than 50 percent of Mac buyers are switching away from the PC - even though the Mac is more expensive (except at the top end of the range.)
So the disparity is growing and you seem to think that these consumers don’t believe that the Mac is a far superior product. What is your alternative theory?
a) They think the Mac’s inferior but they’re happy to pay more and buy it anyway.
b) They think it’s fairly equal, but they’re happy to pay more and buy Macs anyway.
c) They feel sorry for Steve Jobs and are behaving charitably.
d) All these buyers are mentally incompetent and need help.
“Mac users replace their computers a lot less frequently (i.e. greater obsolescence in Windows PCs leads to more PC sales)”
Alternatively, PCs are cheaper so people are more willing to discard old ones. If Macs cost more, naturally people will replace them less often.
Perhaps the truth lies somewhere in between.
A further factor is the virus problem. PC performance degrades over time but does so quite quickly if virus infected. Owners that don’t understand the problem often simply buy a new PC.