I think the classification system used by IDC and Gartner will become irrelevant soon. It needs to be rethought.
I don’t think a Mac and a PC should be classified as the same product.
Let me put it another way:
Apple actually has a 100% market share (of the Mac market) and the Home Mac market is outgrowing the Home Windows PC market by a factor of about 3 or so, indicating that consumers have concluded that it is a far superior product.
If Apple continues to be successful with the Mac and edges up towards 10% of the whole home computer market, then I expect the Home Windows PC market will begin to restructure – most likely around Linux.
HP, Dell, Lenovo, Acer et al, will need to rethink their products in order to compete with the growing impact of the Mac market. Right now it’s obvious that Apple is trampling all over Microsoft and it’s the PC manufacturers that are taking the hit.
Subscribe to HaveMacWillBlog in a reader
Very interesting take on this. I have wondered as well about regional USA market shares such as the New England and Los Angelos areas where film and graphic design may be more prevalent as well as high end colleges teaching these subjects?
“Right now it’s obvious that Apple is trampling all over Microsoft and it’s the PC manufacturers that are taking the hit.”
I like it! Tramp on Apple!!!
I have no solid data on regional figures, but its clear that Apple puts many of its stores in University towns and it has always taken care to serve the film industry just so that Apples keep appearing in movies.
Thanks for the feedback.
Robin
Excellent analysis. I think you’re correct that Apple’s market share will accelerate. People are just beginning to grok Mac.
“Apple actually has a 100% market share (of the Mac market) and the Home Mac market is outgrowing the Home Windows PC market by a factor of about 3 or so, indicating that consumers have concluded that it is a far superior product. ”
I just wanted to address this point. Is it really a fair comparison to try and compare a market in a growth stage with a market that’s in a mature stage?
To say consumers have deemed the mac to be the “far superior product” based on the growth rate is sensationalism at its finest.
Those PC users who do not switch because they believe the PC to provide superior utility do not affect the growth rate because they are already included in that market share. You can’t deny the growth, but you can’t claim the Mac “far superior” based on that and actually believe that is what consumers believe. Some yes, a majority, not a chance.
Other factors not considered is the growing number of PC users who do not purchase a PC from a store and build their own machines. I will likely never buy another “brand name” PC again, the last time i did was in 2002.
Later figures suggest that Mac market is outgrowing the PC market by a much higher factor (10 to 15). More than 50 percent of Mac buyers are switching away from the PC – even though the Mac is more expensive (except at the top end of the range.)
So the disparity is growing and you seem to think that these consumers don’t believe that the Mac is a far superior product. What is your alternative theory?
a) They think the Mac’s inferior but they’re happy to pay more and buy it anyway.
b) They think it’s fairly equal, but they’re happy to pay more and buy Macs anyway.
c) They feel sorry for Steve Jobs and are behaving charitably.
d) All these buyers are mentally incompetent and need help.
“Mac users replace their computers a lot less frequently (i.e. greater obsolescence in Windows PCs leads to more PC sales)”
Alternatively, PCs are cheaper so people are more willing to discard old ones. If Macs cost more, naturally people will replace them less often.
Perhaps the truth lies somewhere in between.
A further factor is the virus problem. PC performance degrades over time but does so quite quickly if virus infected. Owners that don’t understand the problem often simply buy a new PC.
“Owners that don’t understand the [virus] problem often simply buy a new PC.”
If they take their PC to a shop to have it virus cleaned, the cost of labour soon makes a new PC appealing.